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20120926
20121004
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CSPAN2 12
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CSPAN
Sep 27, 2012 6:00am EDT
, it means mitt romney would have to get north of 40-point margin among white working-class voters to actually win the election, to win the popular vote. so let's take look at where we are now based on a reasonable came out. it's the gold standard for polls. a pew research center. no one else -- no offense to anyone else in the room who has april. they really do it right. it's pretty reliable stuff. they give you a lot of interesting demographic breaks tradition as among likely voters that obama is leading now by eight points. if you look at the average of the national polls as a bit high relative to the average. the average has been running about four-point. if you look at polls that sort of do it right to call cell phones and are not just wrote will cause, he is probably up points. this is very similar to ron brownstein's poll. so the overall topline of 51, 43, then look at the breakout the race, look at the margin, 91 points. that's identical with obama's march in 2008. 72, 22 among hispanics. that seems like a lot and it is a lot but it's not that far off with most other polls
CSPAN
Sep 25, 2012 8:00pm EDT
the outlandishly large margin that mitt romney needs to be with white working-class voters. he is not anywhere close. that is the bottom line. this is true across many polls. you might see a margin of 20 points for mitt romney or a margin of 22 points. nowhere do you see the outside margin that he really needs to win the election. given how he appears to be holding support and then some of college graduate voters so that is where we are now in the national picture. as we know, these elections that we choose to have in the united states are not decided by the popular vote. instead, we have the electoral votes where everybody gets another vote for the states that allocate their electrical votes will so that gives us outcomes in a number of battleground states. this is as we laid it out in the first case. we have six states in the midwest area, ohio, michigan, and ohio, states in the southwest, colorado, new mexico and nevada. virginia and florida in the south. all of the states are pretty different. the six states in the midwest are much more heavy and have a slow level of demographic change and
CSPAN
Sep 30, 2012 11:30pm EDT
by the the data. they are having people that are voter file managers who are stealing the data and targeting people you get to the presidential campaign and one of the things the romney campaign had to do after this summer when they won the nomination is the voter science team and increasingly that sort of function is becoming a core function of the campaign. it used to be that to the extent you had a that was less for fund-raising and you could buy them from the voters or consultants. people now have what they call different things but it's basically the core function of the modern campaign to have a discussion on the voter side crunching and processing data. >> host: if we were to go to the romney campaign, how many people -- is there a lot of young staff? >> guest: in chicago dozens of people on how you define it in the fund raising data online analytics in every state they are hiring for better data jobs and voter file managers and targeting directors that's the the bombing campaign has thousands around the country and they are directly interacting with every day. >> do you think the par
CSPAN
Sep 25, 2012 11:00pm EDT
for the senate candidate in 85% people for romney are moving into a quasi-parliamentary system by voters as well as legislatures in the way they behave. i think it is very likely whichever candidate wins the presidential race in virginia, that while some in the senate race. >> when you look at affluent voters in virginia, and many are connected to the boom in public spending and i think that's also something that shapes our perception of the two campaigns. >> the numbers are pretty close nationally. it's a little better, hereby. the noncollege voiceovers. you have this enormous gap that goes back to this point we're in states were a lot of blue-collar rights are evangelical, obama is especially struggling. >> is your review in the succession question. >> entries to think what one thinks about that. i think a lot of conservatives think and i think they're right there is a very large number of very strong candidates. the interesting question is what the democratic primary look like because obviously hillary clinton is an imposing figure and a figure who is not as it tensely disliked by less afflue
CSPAN
Sep 26, 2012 5:00pm EDT
-class voters in 2008 have gone down by three percentage points. again it doesn't appear that romney is able to turn the demographics tie in his favor. he's not doing much better among the white working-class voters according to the polls i've seen. he's made some progress on the outside margin that obama got 14 points in 2008 among the college graduate voters but he's not making nearly enough voters to take the state and if you break it down geographically the denver metro area is about half the vote in the state but that looks very similar in the polling data as it did in 2008. finally, the poster child for demographic change in the united states and how it's been shifted pretty rapidly over time as the great state of nevada. obama is running ahead of though not nearly as far as he did in 2008. but it still will cut off on my monitor but you can see an incredible increase of nine percentage points for the share of eligible voters who are minorities according to the data between 2008 and 2012. that's a massive demographic tide against the republicans and you can see there's been a decline o
CSPAN
Sep 26, 2012 12:00pm EDT
mitt romney probably needs to be competitive among white working class voters to win this election. he is nowhere close. that is the bottom line and this is true across many poles. might see a margin of 20 points for mitt romney or 22 or 23 but nowhere do you see the outside margin that he needs to win the e election given how obama is doing among minority voters and how he appears to be holding support and then some for white college graduate voters so that is where we are in the national picture and as we know these elections we choose to have in the united states are not decided by just the popular vote. that would be a silly thing to do. instead we have this electoral vote system where everybody gets allocated and so on. you know the story. that means the election really comes down to the outcomes of a number of swing or battleground states and this is the 2012 battle ground as we laid it out in three buckets. you have six states in the rust belt midwest area. pennsylvania and ohio and michigan and minnesota and iowa and three in the southwest. nevada and mexico and colorado and th
CSPAN
Oct 3, 2012 8:00pm EDT
in average voters mind a perception of romney. and i think they did it very fine job at it. i think it's part what romney campaign is trying to reposition itself and trying to move forward on. >> the obama campaign did a masterful job too before we go there. >> a lot more money. >> i think -- [inaudible] what percentage do you think of the cross odes and gps ads the federal, the nonpresidential. you think will be comparative? have some element of positive to it? >> well, glsh did or do at a date. that's an excellent question. because we can't -- because outside groups can't coordinate. i think it's interest farring class like this. outside groups can't coordinate with candidates and party committee for television ads it means the candidate can't star in the ads. right. we could go mitt romney event and film romney footage. would we getting the same things the news crew get. we can't shoot an ad of romney talks to the call are a why he'll be the best president. what it does is the anticoordination laws they almost make all the outside group negative because at that point you know we're not coo
CSPAN
Sep 30, 2012 9:00pm EDT
. you get down to the state level campaigns and they definitely are having people who work voter file managers who are just dealing with the data and targeting people just dealing with data you get to the campaigns and one of the things the romney campaign said to do this summer after they won the nomination was and increasingly that sort of function is becoming a core function of the campaign and used to be to the extent you have was fund-raising and you could buy them from the vendors or consultants, and now people will have what they call one different things but there's basically a core function of the modern campaign to have people who are especially on the voter side just country and processing data. >> host: if any of us were to go into the romney campaign or obama campaign and look at the headquarters, are there a lot of young staff? what does it look like? >> guest: in chicago dozens of people depending on how you define that, the online analytical and every state they are hiring for jobs that are data jobs and the targeting directors. the obama campaign will want thousands o
CSPAN
Sep 26, 2012 9:00am EDT
the two men. i think and debate your most effective if you can make a clean shot. and resonate with voters. to my predictions, romney will repeat his claim that obama got $700 billion from medicare. now, during the primaries the republicans used to claim that obama fund his health care plan with $500 billion in cuts. so how did it balloon to $700 billion? is a simple explanation to the congressional budget office over the summer issued a new asset based on a different and later tenure timeline. and so republicans decided to take the biggest number possible. but medicare spending does not mean it is being reduced to in the $700 billion figure comes from the different over 10 years between anticipated medicare spending, what is known as the baseline, and changes to laws made to reduce spending. the savings are mostly run out of from health care providers, not medicare beneficiaries. and actually the medicare actuary raised significant doubts whether any of these cuts would take place because there actually a bit onerous. according to medicare trustee reports, for those -- proposed reduction
CSPAN
Sep 29, 2012 10:00pm EDT
, basically it's a core function of a modern campaign to have people especially on the voter side just crunching and processing data. >> host: if any of us were to go into the romney campaign are the obama campaign and we were to look around the headquarters how many people -- is there a lot of young staff? what does it look like? >> guest: chicago dozens of people doing voter data and date and fundraising data on line analytics and every state there are jobs that are data jobs, voter file managers targeting directors. the obama campaign while thousands of people around the country hundreds of them are directly interacting with data every day. >> host: do you think one of the parties, the republicans are the democrats, is more adept at using this technique or they'll sort of at the same level? >> guest: i think at the moment the democrats are ahead to some leapfrogging cycle to cycle with different parties and one of the things that he comes clear and as i look back over where innovations took place it is one of the stories in this book that these campaigns are really persistent innova
CSPAN
Sep 29, 2012 2:15pm EDT
up to about 2 million. for mitt romney to win the presidency he has to change about 0 million mines. he has to take 2 million of those voters in change and million of their minds. actually ferlies do. a very small number. do you realize that the campaign will spend approximately $2 billion on each side, more than $2,000 per vote will be spent. into those campaigns -- and three other states matter a little bit. michigan, nevada, and mexico. if they come on for its home state son romney, the election is over. nevada, new mexico, very difficult to imagine going for romney at this point. it might go in a landslide. at the they will, but that's not where you bet the farm. here's how you get to the romney 270. he is going to win florida, and i know you follow the polls, some of you do. it says it neck-and-neck. the head back appoints. in fact of the sophisticated polling to run the is significantly ahead in florida, going to not have to put marco rubio on the ticket. it is a state that is fundamentally a republican state and growing more so as demographic changes continue to increase. the
CSPAN
Sep 27, 2012 12:00pm EDT
term when it comes to national security. when we did focus groups on this with swing voters in ohio and florida earlier year, what we found was even voters disinclined to support the president, people who were planning to vote for mitt romney, could not name a single thing that they were willing to criticize president obama on when it comes to national security. they view his record as very solid, they all said the same thing, he got us out of iraq, he got bin laden, he did all the things that you would expect them to say that he did, and they believe that he's done a great job as president. however, there is still some skepticism of democrats as a party, some of the same old questions folks had when we did focus groups in '08 came up again this year, but when it comes to obama, they believe he's done an enormously good job on this. so while the president is very well positioned on these issues, democrats still have some work to do. and we will continue to be tracking these issues and updating our work as years go on. let me now turn it over to bill who'll introduce our guests and g
Search Results 0 to 11 of about 12